Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, Sanlihe, Xicheng District, Beijing Shock Mitigation, Market and Sector Responses submitted by
A strong statement today by President Xi Jinping as news trickled in of yet another American policy shift: "America cannot win a trade war." Over successive policy statements and briefs from central Ministry of Finance officials, it has become clear that the response of Chinese authorities is directed to drive home the President's sentiment. China holds vastly more capacity to outlast the United States in a protracted trade war, including over $3T in Forex reserves
to the United States $118 billion
, finalized and active RCEP
and nearly finalized SCO
agreements, and large internalized increases in domestic consumption
However, President Jinping has stated that "Beijing will not allow the Washington to display a complete lack of international diplomatic respect and sensibility, treating China as an inferior nation to be brought to heel." Many Chinese news outlets are now quoting Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, who noted that "American middle and lower class consumers will be the real losers here, while Chinese manufacturers will seek to accelerate their move to developing markets and focus greater on our emerging middle class."
Finance and administration officials have touted a recently released package of counter active industry and domestic economic actions as the first step in a "decisive Chinese response," signaling that Beijing intends to both sharply mitigate Chinese economic damage while fighting back against American tariffs, both defensively and offensively. Internal Economic Measures
CPC leaders are aware that in a war of tariff attrition with their largest export market, they have a distinct major advantage: a burgeoning domestic consumption market driven by a developing middle class and decade high level of economic growth, and have made a point of contrasting this with a mature and developed American market.
Leaders have quickly sought to boost market confidence, banking on the successful and level response of the administration in Beijing in sharp contrast to the erratic and damaging actions lately from Washington. Having successfully prevented and even boosted capital reserves over the past five years far across the $3T line while slowly shrinking various bubbles under the SAFE program, officials are confident that the Chinese economy is well positioned to absorb the external shock through a variety of means, including the following:
- The PBoC has cut the internal lending rate from 6% to 4.5% for approximately two years, as well as lowered the required reserve ratio for consumer deposits to 16%, the lowest since 2015.
- The government has ad hoc relaxed real estate market restrictions further in order to avoid a constriction of the property market and a possible bubble collapse. These measures are a continuance of the 2017 volatility measures, and allow foreign businesses and individuals to purchase more than one property in the country. Foreign institutional investors are also no longer required to pay registration fees on loans availed to fund their property.
- The central bank has pumped ¥90bn into the market financial system over a variety of methods, seeking to avert fears of a meltdown and instill confidence; a similarly successful and larger package of ¥230bn was used in 2015. Similarly, SAFE has extended a ban on stock sells by shareholders who hold more than 5% of a company.
These measures are designed as a temporary stopgap while the CPC works on releasing a long term, sustainable economic rebalance, which is widely expected in the following days. Yuan Adjustment
The Yuan is currently pegged in a "managed floating rate" against the USD at ¥6.2/$1. To ease the pressure on Chinese exporters driven by US tariffs, and to ensure that exports remain competitive especially in critical developing markets - which Beijing is now seeking to dominate, as has been for years - the PBOC has instituted a small change to the managed reference rate. This is not referred to as a devaluation in any way.
- The reference rate is (once again) set as relative to "foreign exchange demand and supply," a tactic that Beijing has used in the past in order to easily manipulate the value, and has narrowed the trading band to +/- 1.5pc.
- CNY production will be increased 5.5pc as the PBOC begins buying USD in larger quantities.
Beijing is looking to quietly engineer a 2pc reduction in the CNY in a single sweep, with a maximum trading rate falling against to ¥7/$1. However, Yang Gi, Deputy Minister of the PBOC, has put out a statement noting: "The assumption that the People's Bank is attempting to engineer a ten percent devaluation is groundless. The volatility in the market is currently under careful control, and is largely in relation to American financial pressures. However, the PBOC stands ready to step in with capital control measures - including forex buybacks of the Yuan - if the market turns sour." Specific Industry Stimulus
Party officials and Financial deputies have examined at the situation in each of the general tariffed areas excepting automobiles; steel/iron, aluminum, textiles, industrial machinery, and heavy manufacturing. In several cases, demand is incredibly saturated domestically; in others, the addition of SCO/RCEP FTAs and the progress of the Silk Road to Western Asia and Europe have insulated the sectors. However, officials also view this as a chance to rebalance growth in several over-capacitated sectors, a long standing goal.
- Steel: China has previously made a bid to drain overcapacity of their heavy steel sector, which was estimated at 14%, by beginning construction of a massive capital renovation project, the Xiongan New Area. It was expected by officials that the project would rebalance the domestic demand and allow a gradual shift towards neutral or near neutral production; the American sanctions are expected to have little domestic effect, perhaps accelerating the needed balance by 3pc during the first year. American exports are no longer in the Top Ten destination lists, with Vietnam, South Korea, and Pakistan taking the top spots.
- Aluminum: Previously, American aluminum manufacturers had hoped to address the mammoth Chinese overcapacity through diplomatic solutions,, as China has growth to capture 22% of the American market. No longer willing to play ball with American WTO complaints, given their recent actions, central planning authorities will institute a heavier subsidy for aluminum production, essentially negating a portion of the tariff, while they seek to redirect capacity towards RCEP nations. Market data will no longer be available, or will be incredibly disjointed, to misdirect American trade groups as they battle the market flood of cheap aluminum. However, Chinese authorities have instituted a ban on new aluminum manufacturing and facilities while the sector is able to bleed capacity into Asian markets.
- Textiles: Chinese exporters trade approximately $39bn with American importers, namely large retail stores such as Walmart, per year in textiles. This has been massively outpaced by East Asian, which at 2016 figures found $93bn of Chinese imports, and Europe, which imported $72bn. However, in an attempt to insulate North American focused exporters, China has offered a subsidy of ¥40bn drip fed over several years to offset the 20% tariff, and has massively encouraged these exporters to shift quickly away from North America in favor of Silk Road nations.
- Industrial Machinery: Here Chinese firms do heavy business with America: *$194bn in exports as of 2015. While a 20% tariff on machinery needed for American construction sectors is widely expected to raise construction costs and depress the American building industry, Chinese leaders feel they strongly need to encourage this trade flow away from a volatile American market. With a subsidy of ¥60bn, CPC officials have instituted a "Silk Road Industrial Machine Fund," which encourages with grant funding Chinese domestic manufacturers to retool both their logistics and production facilities to provide exports to developing nations. It is the goal of the CPC to reduce American machinery exports to under $100bn by 2025 and replace this with competitive gains in Africa, Europe, and Asia.
Automotive parts and finished exports have not been given specific attention due to the second part of the package, where reciprocal measures will soon be imposed; leading to the belief that American car parts manufacturers will soon lobby the government to remove the shortsighted 30% duty.
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